Researchers at the Network Dynamics and Simulation Science Laboratory (NDSSL) at the Virginia Bioinformatics Institute (VBI) at Virginia Tech are using computer simulations of mathematical models to investigate how infectious diseases like influenza emerge and spread through large populations of people. These simulations allow experts to test the impact of different public health interventions on the spread of infectious agents like viruses through large populations.
Policy makers and other experts need to know in advance what is the optimal combination of measures to put the brakes on a disease outbreak. They need to know how effective it will be, for example, to isolate those infected with the virus and how to optimize the use of limited resources like antiviral treatments. Powerful computer simulations allow you to make better informed decisions before a real outbreak takes place leading to valuable lessons before the big one strikes.
Countries around the globe want to be as ready as possible if a flu pandemic were to be unleashed on the world. VBI’s research team tries to help in this forward planning by creating virtual cities, populating them with synthetic people, and looking at the impact of social contacts on the spread of a disease pandemic in an urban environment. Computer simulations that include the response of populations to a disease outbreak can help to estimate how an outbreak might spread and how different interventions may help to alleviate disease burden. This approach requires managing large amounts of data and to cope with this challenge scientists use high-performance computing methods.
